Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries.
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division's current deterministic pr...
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bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the...
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Respected editor 1 In his article Bellieni mentioned ‘in western countries couples have high expectative about the advantages of delayed parenthood and exploit fertility as late as possible’ (1). Decreasing total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children who would be born per woman (or per 1,000 women) if she/they were to pass through the childbearing years bearing children according to a ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1932-6157
DOI: 10.1214/19-aoas1294